Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote

What's Happening and Why It Matters

Early legislative elections were called after the breakdown of the outgoing administration in June, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an already unstable and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.

The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after extended negotiations formed a fragile four-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.

However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.

Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on 3 June after his allies declined to adopt a far-reaching comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syria nationals.

Although backing of the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political parties have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.

At least 16 parties are predicted to enter parliament, but none is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could take several months.

How the System Works and Party Environment

The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to achieve majority status. No single party ever manages this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for more than a century.

Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that wins 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.

As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.

Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.

Major Parties and Main Issues

Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.

Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.

However, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.

GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is on track to win a similar number, according to survey data.

Headed by the seasoned ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its manifesto.

Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the new parliament.

The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform focused on residential construction (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.

The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.

The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.

In addition to the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.

The top issues currently have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of 400,000 homes).

Possible Coalition Scenarios

Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).

Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the leader of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.

Various combinations look possible, typically including a combination of parties from centre left and center right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and one or more smaller parties potentially including JA21.