How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."

• Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.

But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.